Résumé : In this paper, we present a probabilistic adaptation of an Assume/Guarantee contract formalism. For the sake of generality, we assume that the extended state machines used in the contracts and implementations define sets of runs on a given set of variables, that compose by intersection over the common variables. In order to enable probabilistic reasoning, we consider that the contracts dictate how certain input variables will behave, being either non-deterministic, or probabilistic; the introduction of probabilistic variables leading us to tune the notions of implementation, refinement and composition. As shown in the report, this probabilistic adaptation of the Assume/Guarantee contract theory preserves compositionality and therefore allows modular reliability analysis, either with a top-down or a bottom-up approach.