With the recent introduction of Spot Instances in the Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2), users can bid for resources and thus control the balance of reliability versus monetary costs. A critical challenge is to determine bid prices that minimize monetary costs for a user while meeting Service Level Agreement (SLA) constraints (for example, sufficient re- source availability to complete a computation within a desired deadline). We propose a probabilistic model for the optimization of monetary costs, performance, and reliability, given user and application requirements and dynamic conditions. Using real instance price traces and workload models, we evaluate our model and demonstrate how users should bid optimally on Spot Instances to reach different objectives with desired levels of confidence.