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halshs-00377485, version 1

Breaks or Long Memory Behaviour : An empirical Investigation

Lanouar Charfeddine (Author to contact preferably) 1, Dominique Guegan () 23

Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2009.22 - ISSN : 1955-611X (2009)

Abstract: Are structural breaks models true switching models or long memory processes ? The answer to this question remain ambiguous. A lot of papers, in recent years, have dealt with this problem. For instance, Diebold and Inoue (2001) and Granger and Hyung (2004) show, under specific conditions, that switching models and long memory processes can be easily confused. In this paper, using several generating models like the mean-plus-noise model, the STOchastic Permanent BREAK model, the Markov switching model, the TAR model, the sign model and the Structural CHange model (SCH) and several estimation techiques like the GPH technique, the Exact Local Whittle (ELW) and the Wavelet methods, we show that, if the answer is quite simple in some cases, it can be mitigate in other cases. Using French and American inflation rates, we show that these series cannot be characterized by the same class of models. The main result of this study suggests that estimating the long memory parameter without taking account existence of breaks in the data sets may lead to misspecification and to overestimate the true parameter.

  • 1:  OEP
  • Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée (UPEMLV)
  • 2:  Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne (CES)
  • CNRS : UMR8174 – Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne
  • 3:  Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics (EEP-PSE)
  • Ecole d'Économie de Paris
  • Domain : Humanities and Social Sciences/Economies and finances
    Humanities and Social Sciences/Methods and statistics
    Mathematics/Probability
    Mathematics/Statistics
    Statistics/Statistics Theory
  • Keywords : Structural breaks models – spurious long memory behavior – inflation series
  • Comment : URL des Documents de travail : http://ces.univ-paris1.fr/cesdp/CESFramDP2009.htm
    To Appear in Physica A.
 
  • halshs-00377485, version 1
  • oai:halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr:halshs-00377485
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  • Submitted on: Wednesday, 22 April 2009 10:01:13
  • Updated on: Monday, 23 July 2012 15:58:29