hal-00126956, version 1

Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions

Vittoria Colizza ^1, 2, Alain Barrat ^2, 3, Marc Barthelemy ^1, 4, Alain-Jacques Valleron ^5, 6, Alessandro Vespignani ^1, 2

PLoS Medicineicine 4 (2007) e13

• 1 :  School of Informatics, Indiana University
• 
  Indiana University États-Unis
• 2 :  Complex Networks Lagrange Laboratory
• 
  Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation Turin Italie
• 3 :  Laboratoire de Physique Théorique d'Orsay (LPT)
• http://www.th.u-psud.fr/
  CNRS : UMR8627 – Université Paris XI - Paris Sud Bâtiment 210 Université Paris XI 91405 Orsay Cedex France
• 4 :  Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique Direction Ile-de-France
• 
  CEA Centre d'Etudes de Bruyères Le Châtel France
• 5 :  Epidémiologie des maladies infectieuses et modélisation (ESIM)
• http://www.u707.jussieu.fr
  INSERM : U707 – Université Pierre et Marie Curie [UPMC] - Paris VI Faculte de Médecine Saint-Antoine 27, Rue Chaligny 75571 Paris Cedex 12 France
• 6 :  CIC AP-HP (saint Antoine)/inserm
• http:// http://www.b3e.jussieu.fr/cic/
  INSERM : CIC9304 – Université Pierre et Marie Curie [UPMC] - Paris VI Hopital Saint-Antoine PARIS VI 184, Rue du Faubourg Saint-Antoine 75571 PARIS CEDEX 12 France

Références bibliographiques

• Type de publication : Articles dans des revues avec comité de lecture
• Domaine : Mathématiques/Physique mathématique
• Titre : Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions
• Résumé : We present a study of the worldwide spread of a pandemic influenza and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel. We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global scale that considers airline travel flow data among urban areas. We provided a temporal and spatial evolution of the pandemic with a sensitivity analysis of different levels of infectiousness of the virus and initial outbreak conditions (both geographical and seasonal). For each spreading scenario we provided the timeline and the geographical impact of the pandemic in 3,100 urban areas, located in 220 different countries. We compared the baseline cases with different containment strategies, including travel restrictions and the therapeutic use of antiviral (AV) drugs. We show that the inclusion of air transportation is crucial in the assessment of the occurrence probability of global outbreaks. The large-scale therapeutic usage of AV drugs in all hit countries would be able to mitigate a pandemic effect with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9 during the first year; with AV supply use sufficient to treat approximately 2% to 6% of the population, in conjunction with efficient case detection and timely drug distribution. For highly contagious viruses (i.e., a reproductive rate as high as 2.3), even the unrealistic use of supplies corresponding to the treatment of approximately 20% of the population leaves 30%-50% of the population infected. In the case of limited AV supplies and pandemics with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9, we demonstrate that the more cooperative the strategy, the more effective are the containment results in all regions of the world, including those countries that made part of their resources available for global use.
• Langue du texte
  intégral : Anglais
• Date de production,
  écriture : 2007
• Journal : PLoS Medicineicine
• Audience : internationale
• Date de publication : 2007
• Volume : 4
• Page, identifiant, ... : e13
• Commentaire : 16 pages
• Référence interne : 07-04

• hal-00126956, version 1
• http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00126956
• oai:hal.archives-ouvertes.fr:hal-00126956
• Contributeur : Patricia Dubois-Violette <>
• Soumis le : Vendredi 26 Janvier 2007, 16:46:26
• Dernière modification le : Vendredi 26 Janvier 2007, 16:46:26