Sensitivity Analysis of Bayesian Networks Used in Forensic Investigations

Abstract : Research on using Bayesian networks to enhance digital forensic investigations has yet to evaluate the quality of the output of a Bayesian network. The evaluation can be performed by assessing the sensitivity of the posterior output of a forensic hypothesis to the input likelihood values of the digital evidence. This paper applies Bayesian sensitivity analysis techniques to a Bayesian network model for the well-known Yahoo! case. The analysis demonstrates that the conclusions drawn from Bayesian network models are statistically reliable and stable for small changes in evidence likelihood values.
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Michael Kwan, Richard Overill, Kam-Pui Chow, Hayson Tse, Frank Law, et al.. Sensitivity Analysis of Bayesian Networks Used in Forensic Investigations. 7th Digital Forensics (DF), Jan 2011, Orlando, FL, United States. pp.231-243, ⟨10.1007/978-3-642-24212-0_18⟩. ⟨hal-01569550⟩

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