M. Beekmann and C. Derognat, Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis of a regional-scale transport chemistry model constrained by measurements from the Atmospheric Pollution Over the Paris Area (ESQUIF) campaign, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.23, issue.D17, pp.10-1029, 2003.
DOI : 10.1029/2003JD003391

J. Boutahar, S. Lacour, V. Mallet, D. Quélo, Y. Roustan et al., Development and validation of a fully modular platform for numerical modelling of air pollution: POLAIR, International Journal of Environment and Pollution, vol.22, issue.1/2, pp.17-28, 2004.
DOI : 10.1504/IJEP.2004.005474

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/inria-00527198

N. Cesa-bianchi, P. M. Long, and M. K. Warmuth, Worst-case quadratic loss bounds for prediction using linear functions and gradient descent, IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, vol.7, issue.3, pp.604-619, 1996.
DOI : 10.1109/72.501719

J. Chang, R. Brost, I. Isaken, S. Madronich, P. Middleton et al., A three-dimensional Eulerian acid deposition model: Physical concepts and formulation, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.21, issue.62, pp.681-14700, 1987.
DOI : 10.1029/JD092iD12p14681

W. F. Dabberdt and E. Miller, Uncertainty, ensembles and air quality dispersion modeling: applications and challenges, Atmospheric Environment, vol.34, issue.27, pp.4667-4673, 2000.
DOI : 10.1016/S1352-2310(00)00141-2

L. Delle-monache and R. B. Stull, An ensemble air-quality forecast over western Europe during an ozone episode, Atmospheric Environment, vol.37, issue.25, pp.3469-3474, 2003.
DOI : 10.1016/S1352-2310(03)00475-8

S. Galmarini, Ensemble dispersion forecasting???Part I: concept, approach and indicators, Atmospheric Environment, vol.38, issue.28, pp.4607-4617, 2004.
DOI : 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.05.030

URL : http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.05.030

S. R. Hanna and J. M. Davis, Evaluation of a photochemical grid model using estimates of concentration probability density functions, Atmospheric Environment, vol.36, issue.11, pp.1793-1798, 2002.
DOI : 10.1016/S1352-2310(02)00163-2

S. R. Hanna, J. C. Chang, and M. E. Fernau, Monte carlo estimates of uncertainties in predictions by a photochemical grid model (UAM-IV) due to uncertainties in input variables, Atmospheric Environment, vol.32, issue.21, pp.3619-3628, 1998.
DOI : 10.1016/S1352-2310(97)00419-6

S. R. Hanna, Z. Lu, H. C. Frey, N. Wheeler, J. Vukovich et al., Uncertainties in predicted ozone concentrations due to input uncertainties for the UAM-V photochemical grid model applied to the July 1995 OTAG domain, Atmospheric Environment, vol.35, issue.5, pp.891-903, 1995.
DOI : 10.1016/S1352-2310(00)00367-8

J. A. Hoeting, D. Madigan, A. E. Raftery, and C. T. Volinsky, Bayesian model averaging: A tutorial, Stat. Sci, vol.14, issue.4, pp.382-417, 1999.

L. W. Horowitz, A global simulation of tropospheric ozone and related tracers: Description and evaluation of MOZART, version 2, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol.56, issue.D4, pp.478410-1029, 2003.
DOI : 10.1029/2002JD002853

T. N. Krishnamurti, C. M. Kishtawal, Z. Zhang, D. B. Larow, and E. Williford, Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts for Weather and Seasonal Climate, Journal of Climate, vol.13, issue.23, pp.4196-4216, 2000.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<4196:MEFFWA>2.0.CO;2

J. Louis, A parametric model of vertical eddy fluxes in the atmosphere, Boundary-Layer Meteorology, vol.93, issue.2, pp.187-202, 1979.
DOI : 10.1007/BF00117978

S. Madronich, Photodissociation in the atmosphere: 1. Actinic flux and the effects of ground reflections and clouds, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.59, issue.D8, pp.9740-9752, 1987.
DOI : 10.1029/JD092iD08p09740

V. Mallet and B. Sportisse, Data processing and parameterizations in atmospheric chemistry and physics: The AtmoData library, Tech. Rep. 12, Cent. d'Enseignement et de Rech, 2005.

V. Mallet and B. Sportisse, Uncertainty in a chemistry-transport model due to physical parameterizations and numerical approximations: An ensemble approach applied to ozone modeling, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.3, issue.D22, pp.10-1029, 2006.
DOI : 10.1029/2005JD006149

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00650907

V. Mallet, D. Quélo, and B. Sportisse, Software architecture of an ideal modeling platform in air quality?A first step: Polyphemus, Tech. Rep. 11, Cent. d'Enseignement et de Rech, 2005.

S. Mckeen, Assessment of an ensemble of seven real-time ozone forecasts over eastern North America during the summer of, J. Geophys. Res, pp.10-1029, 2004.

P. Middleton, W. R. Stockwell, and W. P. Carter, Aggregation and analysis of volatile organic compound emissions for regional modeling, Atmospheric Environment. Part A. General Topics, vol.24, issue.5, pp.1107-1133, 1990.
DOI : 10.1016/0960-1686(90)90077-Z

M. Pagowski, A simple method to improve ensemble-based ozone forecasts, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.2, issue.7, pp.10-1029, 2005.
DOI : 10.1029/2004GL022305

A. Russell and R. Dennis, NARSTO critical review of photochemical models and modeling, Atmospheric Environment, vol.34, issue.12-14, pp.2234-2283, 2000.
DOI : 10.1016/S1352-2310(99)00468-9

D. Simpson, Inventorying emissions from nature in Europe, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol.4, issue.1, pp.8113-8152, 1999.
DOI : 10.1029/98JD02747

W. R. Stockwell, P. Middleton, J. S. Chang, and X. Tang, The second generation regional acid deposition model chemical mechanism for regional air quality modeling, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.18, issue.D10, pp.343-359, 1990.
DOI : 10.1029/JD095iD10p16343

W. R. Stockwell, F. Kirchner, M. Kuhn, and S. Seefeld, A new mechanism for regional atmospheric chemistry modeling, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol.25, issue.D22, pp.847-872, 1997.
DOI : 10.1029/97JD00849

A. G. Straume, A More Extensive Investigation of the Use of Ensemble Forecasts for Dispersion Model Evaluation, Journal of Applied Meteorology, vol.40, issue.3, pp.425-445, 2001.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040<0425:AMEIOT>2.0.CO;2

A. G. Straume, E. N. Koffi, and K. Nodop, Dispersion Modeling Using Ensemble Forecasts Compared to ETEX Measurements, Journal of Applied Meteorology, vol.37, issue.11, pp.1444-1456, 1998.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0450(1998)037<1444:DMUEFC>2.0.CO;2

I. Troen and L. Mahrt, A simple model of the atmospheric boundary layer; sensitivity to surface evaporation, Boundary-Layer Meteorology, vol.105, issue.1-2, pp.129-148, 1986.
DOI : 10.1007/BF00122760

J. G. Verwer, W. Hundsdorfer, and J. G. Blom, Numerical time integration for air pollution models, Surv. Math. Ind, vol.10, pp.107-174, 2002.

T. T. Warner, R. Sheu, J. F. Bowers, R. I. Sykes, G. C. Dodd et al., Ensemble Simulations with Coupled Atmospheric Dynamic and Dispersion Models: Illustrating Uncertainties in Dosage Simulations, Journal of Applied Meteorology, vol.41, issue.5, pp.488-504, 2002.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0450(2002)041<0488:ESWCAD>2.0.CO;2

M. L. Wesely, Parameterization of surface resistances to gaseous dry deposition in regional-scale numerical models, Atmospheric Environment (1967), vol.23, issue.6, pp.1293-1304, 1989.
DOI : 10.1016/0004-6981(89)90153-4

L. Zhang, J. R. Brook, and R. Vet, A revised parameterization for gaseous dry deposition in air-quality models, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol.3, issue.6, pp.2067-2082, 2003.
DOI : 10.5194/acp-3-2067-2003

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00295366

À. , V. Mallet, B. Sportisse, C. , and E. /. Edf-r&d, 6-8 avenue Blaise Pascal, Cité Descartes Champs-sur-Marne, F-77455 Marne la Vallée Cedex 2, ) D18302 MALLET AND SPORTISSE: ENSEMBLE-BASED AIR-QUALITY FORECASTS