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Markov analysis of land use dynamics - A Case Study in Madagascar

Fabien Campillo 1 Dominique Hervé 2 Angelo Raherinirina 3 Rivo Rakotozafy 3
1 MODEMIC - Modelling and Optimisation of the Dynamics of Ecosystems with MICro-organisme
MISTEA - Mathématiques, Informatique et STatistique pour l'Environnement et l'Agronomie, CRISAM - Inria Sophia Antipolis - Méditerranée
Abstract : We present a Markov model of a land-use dynamic along a forest corridor of Madagascar. A first approach by the maximum likelihood approach leads to a model with an absorbing state. We study the quasi-stationary distribution law of the model and the law of the hitting time of the absorbing state. According to experts, a transition not present in the data must be added to the model: this is not possible by the maximum likelihood method and we make of the Bayesian approach. We use a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to infer the transition matrix which in this case admits an invariant distribution law. Finally we analyze the two identified dynamics.
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  • HAL Id : hal-00924077, version 2
  • PRODINRA : 285375

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Fabien Campillo, Dominique Hervé, Angelo Raherinirina, Rivo Rakotozafy. Markov analysis of land use dynamics - A Case Study in Madagascar. Revue Africaine de la Recherche en Informatique et Mathématiques Appliquées, INRIA, 2014, 17, pp.1-22. ⟨hal-00924077v2⟩

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