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Pathogen population dynamics in agricultural landscapes: The Ddal modelling framework

Julien Papaïx 1, 2 Katarzyna Adamczyk-Chauvat 2 Annie Bouvier 2 Kiên Kiêu 2 Suzanne Touzeau 3, 2, 4 Christian Lannou 1 Hervé Monod 2
1 BIOGER - BIOlogie et GEstion des Risques en agriculture
2 MIA - Unité de recherche Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées
3 BIOCORE - Biological control of artificial ecosystems
LOV - Laboratoire d'océanographie de Villefranche, CRISAM - Inria Sophia Antipolis - Méditerranée , INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique
4 ISA - Institut Sophia Agrobiotech
Abstract : Modelling processes that occur at the landscape scale is gaining more and more attention from theoretical ecologists to agricultural managers. Most of the approaches found in the literature lack applicability for managers or, on the opposite, lack a sound theoretical basis. Based on the metapopulation concept, we propose here a modelling approach for landscape epidemiology that takes advantage of theoretical results developed in the metapopulation context while considering realistic landscapes structures. A landscape simulator makes it possible to represent both the field pattern and the spatial distribution of crops. The pathogen population dynamics are then described through a matrix population model both stage- and space-structured. In addition to a classical invasion analysis we present a stochastic simulation experiment and provide a complete framework for performing a sensitivity analysis integrating the landscape as an input factor. We illustrate our approach using an example to evaluate whether the agricultural landscape composition and structure may prevent and mitigate the development of an epidemic. Although designed for a fungal foliar disease, our modelling approach is easily adaptable to other organisms.
Keywords : Landscape pattern indices Landscape epidemiology Model analysis Metapopulation model Sensitivity analysis Tessellation models
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Journal articles
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https://hal.inria.fr/hal-01099950
Contributor : Jean-Luc Gouzé <>
Submitted on : Monday, January 5, 2015 - 3:38:56 PM
Last modification on : Thursday, December 3, 2020 - 5:28:02 PM

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AGROPARISTECH | CNRS | INRIA | INRA | INSMI | UNICE | UPMC | INSU | UNIV-COTEDAZUR | SORBONNE-UNIVERSITE | LOV | SU-SCIENCES | UMS-829 | INRAE

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Julien Papaïx, Katarzyna Adamczyk-Chauvat, Annie Bouvier, Kiên Kiêu, Suzanne Touzeau, et al.. Pathogen population dynamics in agricultural landscapes: The Ddal modelling framework. Infection, Genetics and Evolution, Elsevier, 2014, 27, pp.509-520. ⟨10.1016/j.meegid.2014.01.022⟩. ⟨hal-01099950⟩

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