Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
Conference papers

Analytic Combinatorics of the Mabinogion Urn

Abstract : The Mabinogion urn is a simple model of the spread of influences amongst versatile populations. It corresponds to a non-standard urn with balls of two colours: each time a ball is drawn, it causes a ball of the other kind to switch its colour. The process stops once unanimity has been reached. This note provides analytic expressions describing the evolution of the Mabinogion urn, based on a time-reversal transformation applied to the classical Ehrenfest urn. Consequences include a precise asymptotic analysis of the stopping-time distribution―it is asymptotically normal in the "unfair'' case and akin to an extreme-value (double exponential) distribution in the "fair'' case―as well as a characterization of the exponentially small probability of reversing a majority.
Complete list of metadata

Cited literature [16 references]  Display  Hide  Download
Contributor : Coordination Episciences Iam Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Monday, September 7, 2015 - 12:50:51 PM
Last modification on : Friday, August 5, 2022 - 2:45:59 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Tuesday, December 8, 2015 - 12:54:43 PM


Publisher files allowed on an open archive




Philippe Flajolet, Thierry Huillet. Analytic Combinatorics of the Mabinogion Urn. Fifth Colloquium on Mathematics and Computer Science, 2008, Kiel, Germany. pp.549-572, ⟨10.46298/dmtcs.3591⟩. ⟨hal-01194668⟩



Record views


Files downloads