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Solar energy production: Short-term forecasting and risk management

Cédric Join 1, 2, 3, 4 Michel Fliess 5, 3 Cyril Voyant 6, 7 Frédéric Chaxel 1
1 CRAN - Centre de Recherche en Automatique de Nancy
2 Inria Lille - Nord Europe
3 AL.I.E.N. - ALgèbre pour Identification & Estimation Numériques
4 NON-A - Non-Asymptotic estimation for online systems
Inria Lille - Nord Europe, CRIStAL - Centre de Recherche en Informatique, Signal et Automatique de Lille (CRIStAL) - UMR 9189
5 LIX - Laboratoire d'informatique de l'École polytechnique [Palaiseau]
6 SPE - Sciences pour l'environnement
7 Centre hospitalier d'Ajaccio
Abstract : Electricity production via solar energy is tackled via short-term forecasts and risk management. Our main tool is a new setting on time series. It allows the definition of "confidence bands" where the Gaussian assumption, which is not satisfied by our concrete data, may be abandoned. Those bands are quite convenient and easily implementable. Numerous computer simulations are presented.
Keywords : intelligent knowledge-based systems volatility Solar energy risk persistence forecasts time series confidence bands normality tests
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Conference papers
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https://hal-polytechnique.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01272152
Contributor : Michel Fliess <>
Submitted on : Wednesday, February 17, 2016 - 12:00:33 PM
Last modification on : Wednesday, March 27, 2019 - 4:41:27 PM
Document(s) archivé(s) le : Saturday, November 12, 2016 - 10:39:16 PM

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  • HAL Id : hal-01272152, version 2
  • ARXIV : 1602.06295

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Cédric Join, Michel Fliess, Cyril Voyant, Frédéric Chaxel. Solar energy production: Short-term forecasting and risk management. 8th IFAC Conference on Manufacturing Modelling, Management & Control (MIM 2016), Jun 2016, Troyes, France. ⟨hal-01272152v2⟩

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