The Classic Swine Fever Morbidity Forecasting Research Based on Combined Model

Abstract : This paper proposes the combined forecasting model which study on the classic swine fever (CSF) morbidity, using the forecasting results of ARIMA and GM (1, 1) model as the inputs of the majorizing BP neural network. Analyzing the monthly data from 2000 to 2009 and the accuracy of the forecasting results is 97.379%, more accurate and more steady than traditional methods. This research provides efficient Analytical tools for animals’ diseases forecasting work, and can provide reference to other animal diseases.