Calibrating a Dependent Failure Model for Computing Reliabilities in Telecommunication Networks

Abstract : In this work, we propose a methodology for calibrating a dependent failure model to compute the reliability in a telecommunication network. We use the Marshall-Olkin (MO) copula model, which captures failures that arise simultaneously in groups of links. In practice, this model is difficult to calibrate because it requires the estimation of a number of parameters that is exponential in the number of links. We formulate an optimization problem for calibrating an MO copula model to attain given marginal failure probabilities for all links and the correlations between them. Using a geographic failure model, we calibrate various MO copula models using our methodology, we simulate them, and we benchmark the reliabilities thus obtained. Our experiments show that considering the simultaneous failures of small and connected subsets of links is the key to obtaining a good approximation of reliability, confirming what is suggested by the telecommunication literature.
Type de document :
Communication dans un congrès
WSC 2016 - Winter Simulation Conference, Dec 2016, Arlington, United States. 〈10.1109/WSC.2016.7822115〉
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https://hal.inria.fr/hal-01423587
Contributeur : Yassine Hadjadj Aoul <>
Soumis le : vendredi 30 décembre 2016 - 13:27:36
Dernière modification le : jeudi 15 novembre 2018 - 11:57:39

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Omar Matus, Javiera Barrera, Eduardo Moreno, Gerardo Rubino. Calibrating a Dependent Failure Model for Computing Reliabilities in Telecommunication Networks. WSC 2016 - Winter Simulation Conference, Dec 2016, Arlington, United States. 〈10.1109/WSC.2016.7822115〉. 〈hal-01423587〉

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