A Mockup Stochastic Program to Study the Impact of Design Uncertainty on ETO Shipbuilding Planning

Abstract : A major driver of planning complexity in dynamically changing ETO shipbuilding is design uncertainty far into the design planning and production processes. This leads to uncertainty in task and project completion time, and complex dependencies and correlations driven by the uncertainty in multiple task parameters. The problem is difficult to be solved exactly, and decision-making is largely based on experience and gut feeling, with subsequent behavioral challenges. We build a mockup stochastic program to draw attention to- and analyze the complexity of formulating and solving the engineering design planning problem. We demonstrate how design uncertainty is affecting the planning complexity and solutions.
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Communication dans un congrès
Shigeki Umeda; Masaru Nakano; Hajime Mizuyama; Hironori Hibino; Dimitris Kiritsis; Gregor von Cieminski. IFIP International Conference on Advances in Production Management Systems (APMS), Sep 2015, Tokyo, Japan. IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, AICT-460 (Part II), pp.167-174, 2015, Advances in Production Management Systems: Innovative Production Management Towards Sustainable Growth. 〈10.1007/978-3-319-22759-7_19〉
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Hajnalka Vaagen, Michal Kaut. A Mockup Stochastic Program to Study the Impact of Design Uncertainty on ETO Shipbuilding Planning. Shigeki Umeda; Masaru Nakano; Hajime Mizuyama; Hironori Hibino; Dimitris Kiritsis; Gregor von Cieminski. IFIP International Conference on Advances in Production Management Systems (APMS), Sep 2015, Tokyo, Japan. IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, AICT-460 (Part II), pp.167-174, 2015, Advances in Production Management Systems: Innovative Production Management Towards Sustainable Growth. 〈10.1007/978-3-319-22759-7_19〉. 〈hal-01431090〉

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