1Polytechnic Institute of Setúbal [Portugal] (Instituto Politécnico de Setúbal
CIMOB-IPS
Campus do IPS
Edifício ESTSetúbal
Estefanilha
2910-761 Setúbal
Portugal - Portugal)
Abstract : The importance of forecasting has become more evident with the appearance of the open electricity market and the restructuring of the national energy sector. This paper presents a new approach to load forecasting in the medium voltage distribution network in Portugal. The forecast horizon is short term, from 24 h up to a week. The forecast method is based on the combined use of a regression model and artificial neural networks (ANN). The study was done with the time series of telemetry data of the DSO (EDP Distribution) and climatic records from IPMA (Portuguese Institute of Sea and Atmosphere), applied for the urban area of Évora - one of the first Smart Cities in Portugal. The performance of the proposed methodology is illustrated by graphical results and evaluated with statistical indicators. The error (MAPE) was lower than 5 %, meaning that chosen methodology clearly validate the feasibility of the test.
Luis M. Camarinha-Matos; António J. Falcão; Nazanin Vafaei; Shirin Najdi. 7th Doctoral Conference on Computing, Electrical and Industrial Systems (DoCEIS), Apr 2016, Costa de Caparica, Portugal. IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, AICT-470, pp.340-349, 2016, Technological Innovation for Cyber-Physical Systems. 〈10.1007/978-3-319-31165-4_33〉
https://hal.inria.fr/hal-01438261
Contributeur : Hal Ifip
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Soumis le : mardi 17 janvier 2017 - 15:38:16
Dernière modification le : mardi 17 janvier 2017 - 15:49:44
Document(s) archivé(s) le : mardi 18 avril 2017 - 15:00:15
Svetlana Chemetova, Paulo Santos, Mário Ventim-Neves. Load Forecasting in Electrical Distribution Grid of Medium Voltage. Luis M. Camarinha-Matos; António J. Falcão; Nazanin Vafaei; Shirin Najdi. 7th Doctoral Conference on Computing, Electrical and Industrial Systems (DoCEIS), Apr 2016, Costa de Caparica, Portugal. IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, AICT-470, pp.340-349, 2016, Technological Innovation for Cyber-Physical Systems. 〈10.1007/978-3-319-31165-4_33〉. 〈hal-01438261〉
