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Article Dans Une Revue ESAIM: Probability and Statistics Année : 2019

A law of large numbers for branching Markov processes by the ergodicity of ancestral lineages

Résumé

We are interested in the dynamic of a structured branching population where the trait of each individual moves according to a Markov process. The rate of division of each individual is a function of its trait and when a branching event occurs, the trait of a descendant at birth depends on the trait of the mother. We prove a law of large numbers for the empirical distribution of ancestral trajectories. It ensures that the empirical measure converges to the mean value of the spine which is a time-inhomogeneous Markov process describing the trait of a typical individual along its ancestral lineage. Our approach relies on ergodicity arguments for this time-inhomogeneous Markov process. We apply this technique on the example of a size-structured population with exponential growth in varying environment.
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Dates et versions

hal-01567317 , version 1 (22-07-2017)
hal-01567317 , version 2 (12-03-2018)
hal-01567317 , version 3 (27-03-2019)

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Citer

Aline Marguet. A law of large numbers for branching Markov processes by the ergodicity of ancestral lineages. ESAIM: Probability and Statistics, In press, pp.1-23. ⟨10.1051/ps/2018029⟩. ⟨hal-01567317v3⟩
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