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Prévision de génération d'électricité à partir de sources renouvelables

Abstract : Since 2007 the French electricity market has been liberalized. With this, a massive integration of intermittent production means, called renewables, has been witnessed. The intermittent nature of these facilities makes more difficult the anticipation of the production capacity needed to honour the contracted obligations towards partners and market’s actors. To anticipate its productions’ capabilities, each actor shall use production tools to allow him an optimal operation of his activities. For this, the available data are load curves or the electricity produced quantity over a time interval. This document deals with the monthly prediction of load curves up to 12 months ahead. We consider load curves as time series or stochastic processes. We use exponential smooth predictors with a multiplicative seasonal structure and damped trend applied to hydraulic electricity generation data from the company ENERCOOP.
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Submitted on : Friday, February 9, 2018 - 11:49:00 AM
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  • HAL Id : hal-01705287, version 1



Komi Nagbe, Jairo Cugliari, Adrien Thebault, Julien Jacques. Prévision de génération d'électricité à partir de sources renouvelables. 49èmes Journées de Statistique organisée par la Société Française de Statistique, May 2017, Avignon, France. ⟨hal-01705287⟩



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