Influence of the components of propagule pressure, Allee effects, and stochasticity on the time to establish introduced populations

Nicolas Bajeux 1, 2 Frédéric Grognard 1, 3 Ludovic Mailleret 4, 3, 1
1 BIOCORE - Biological control of artificial ecosystems
CRISAM - Inria Sophia Antipolis - Méditerranée , INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, LOV - Laboratoire d'océanographie de Villefranche
Abstract : Forecasting whether individuals of an introduced population will succeed to establish is a challenge in invasion and conservation biology. The present work aims to decouple the impact of the components of propagule pressure on the time for population establishment in the presence of Allee effects and stochasticity in propagule sizes. The mean first passage time (MFPT) for a population to reach a viable size is used as a measure of the establishment success for the introduction processes involving periodic introductions. By fixing the introduction rate (mean number of introduced individuals per unit time) and varying the period of introduction from small ranges (small and frequent introductions) to large ones (infrequent and large releases), we study the influence of introduction distribution over time. These patterns of introduction are compared in a semi-stochastic model by observing which factors minimize the MFPT from an initially absent population, and hence, ensure the fastest population establishment. We investigate the influence on these minima of the introduction rate, variability in the introduction sizes, and occurrence of catastrophes that temporarily wipe out the population. Whereas most investigated cases show that infrequent and large introductions favor population establishment as expected, small and frequent introductions are preferred when the introduction rate is large and/or the variability in the introduction size is strong. Moreover, we observed counterintuitively that catastrophes strongly increase MFPT at small periods of introduction. In addition, we showed that stochasticity in introduction tends to increase the MFPT except when the introduction rate is small and introductions are evenly spread out in time.
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Submitted on : Friday, May 24, 2019 - 6:37:56 PM
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Nicolas Bajeux, Frédéric Grognard, Ludovic Mailleret. Influence of the components of propagule pressure, Allee effects, and stochasticity on the time to establish introduced populations. Journal of Theoretical Biology, Elsevier, 2019, 471, pp.91-107. ⟨10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.03.012⟩. ⟨hal-02139554⟩

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