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Master thesis

Analyse du modèle World3 : sensibilité, dynamique, et pistes d'évolution

Mathilde Jochaud Du Plessix 1
1 STEEP - Sustainability transition, environment, economy and local policy
Inria Grenoble - Rhône-Alpes, LJK - Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann
Abstract : World3 is a computer tool created to simulate the interactions between the world population, industrial growth and food production within the limits of the planet. It aims to highlight the problems posed by indefinite material growth in a finite world. The first version of this tool was proposed in 1972 by MIT researchers for the first report to the Club of Rome. This report was both highly successful and polemic. The main detractors of the model criticized it for being too approximate in the choice of the parameters and for beeing too simplistic. The objective of this paper is to revisit some aspects of the scientific validation of this model, in a context where growth is widely debated in the scientific and civil community, through a new and more sophisticated sensitivity analysis of the model, compared to what is available in the literature.
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https://hal.inria.fr/hal-02434683
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Submitted on : Friday, January 10, 2020 - 11:38:12 AM
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Mathilde Jochaud Du Plessix. Analyse du modèle World3 : sensibilité, dynamique, et pistes d'évolution. Modélisation et simulation. 2019. ⟨hal-02434683⟩

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