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Rapport (Rapport De Recherche) Année : 2020

A prediction of COVID-19 development in France based on a modified SEIR epidemic model

Résumé

The goal of this brief report is to identify the parameters of a modified SEIR model for the epidemics course of COVID-19 in France, and to use such an identified model for the prediction of the virus propagation under different conditions of confinement. An interval predictor is also designed, allowing to take into account variations and uncertainties in the model parameters.
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Dates et versions

hal-02517866 , version 1 (24-03-2020)
hal-02517866 , version 2 (27-03-2020)
hal-02517866 , version 3 (30-03-2020)
hal-02517866 , version 4 (06-04-2020)
hal-02517866 , version 5 (27-04-2020)
hal-02517866 , version 6 (03-06-2020)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-02517866 , version 1

Citer

Denis Efimov, Rosane Ushirobira. A prediction of COVID-19 development in France based on a modified SEIR epidemic model. [Research Report] Inria Lille Nord Europe - Laboratoire CRIStAL - Université de Lille. 2020. ⟨hal-02517866v1⟩
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