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On interval prediction of COVID-19 development in France based on a SEIR epidemic model

Denis Efimov 1 Rosane Ushirobira 1
1 VALSE - Finite-time control and estimation for distributed systems
Inria Lille - Nord Europe, CRIStAL - Centre de Recherche en Informatique, Signal et Automatique de Lille (CRIStAL) - UMR 9189
Abstract : This paper aims to identify the parameters of an original modified SEIR model for the COVID-19 epidemic's course in France by using publicly available data and applying such an identified model for the prediction of the SARS-CoV-2 virus propagation under different conditions of confinement. For this purpose, an interval predictor is designed, allowing variations and uncertainties in the model parameters to be taken into account.
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https://hal.inria.fr/hal-02965038
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Submitted on : Monday, October 12, 2020 - 10:11:24 PM
Last modification on : Wednesday, October 14, 2020 - 3:39:09 AM

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  • HAL Id : hal-02965038, version 1

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Denis Efimov, Rosane Ushirobira. On interval prediction of COVID-19 development in France based on a SEIR epidemic model. 59th Conference on Decision and Control, Dec 2020, Jeju Island, South Korea. ⟨hal-02965038⟩

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