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Impacts of novelty seeking on predictability in human mobility

Abstract : Predicting how humans move within space and time is a central topic in many scientific domains such as epidemic propagation, urban planning, and ride-sharing. However, current studies neglect individuals' preferences to explore and discover new places. Yet, neglecting novelty-seeking activities at first glance appears to be inconsequential on the ability to understand and predict individuals' trajectories. In this work, we claim and show the opposite: exploration moments strongly impact mobility understanding and anticipation. We start by proposing a new approach to identifying moments of novelty-seeking. Based on that, we construct individuals' mobility profiles using their exploration inclinations-Scouters (i.e., extreme explorers), Routiners (i.e., extreme returners), and Regulars (i.e., an individual with no extreme behavior). Finally, we evaluate the impacts of noveltyseeking, quality of the data, and the prediction task formulation on the theoretical and practical predictability extents. The results show the validity of our profiling and highlight the obstructive impacts of novelty-seeking activities on the predictability of human trajectories, in particular, on Scouters.
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https://hal.inria.fr/hal-03211998
Contributor : Aline Carneiro Viana <>
Submitted on : Thursday, April 29, 2021 - 11:25:43 AM
Last modification on : Sunday, May 2, 2021 - 3:27:17 AM

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  • HAL Id : hal-03211998, version 1

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Licia Amichi, Aline Carneiro Viana, Mark Crovella, Antonio Loureiro. Impacts of novelty seeking on predictability in human mobility. [Research Report] Inria. 2021. ⟨hal-03211998⟩

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