The skin microbiome plays an important role in the maintenance of a healthy skin. It is an ecosystem, composed of several species, competing for resources and interacting with the skin cells. Imbalance in the cutaneous microbiome, also called dysbiosis, has been correlated with several skin conditions, including acne and atopic dermatitis. Generally, dysbiosis is linked to colonization of the skin by a population of opportunistic pathogenic bacteria (for example C. acnes in acne or S. aureus in atopic dermatitis). Treatments consisting in non-specific elimination of cutaneous microflora have shown conflicting results. It is therefore necessary to understand the factors influencing shifts of the skin microbiome composition. In this work, we introduce a mathematical model based on ordinary differential equations, with 2 types of bacteria populations (skin commensals and opportunistic pathogens) to study the mechanisms driving the dominance of one population over the other. By using published experimental data, assumed to correspond to the observation of stable states in our model, we derive constraints that allow us to reduce the number of parameters of the model from 13 to 5. Interestingly, a meta-stable state settled at around 2 days following the introduction of bacteria in the model, is followed by a reversed stable state after 300 hours. On the time scale of the experiments, we show that certain changes of the environment, like the elevation of skin surface pH, create favorable conditions for the emergence and colonization of the skin by the opportunistic pathogen population. Such predictions help identifying potential therapeutic targets for the treatment of skin conditions involving dysbiosis of the microbiome, and question the importance of meta-stable states in mathematical models of biological processes.