Scenario templates to analyse qualitative ecosystem models

Christine Largouët 1 Marie-Odile Cordier 1 Guy Fontenelle 2
1 DREAM - Diagnosing, Recommending Actions and Modelling
Inria Rennes – Bretagne Atlantique , IRISA-D7 - GESTION DES DONNÉES ET DE LA CONNAISSANCE
Abstract : In this paper, we propose to transform environmental questions about future evolution of ecosystems into queries that could be submitted to a simulation model. In this work, the model is a marine ecosystem in a fisheries context. When dealing with environmental problems, scenarios are widely used tools for evaluating future evolution of ecosystems given policy options, potential climatic changes or impacts of catastrophic events. If the scenarios are generally expressed in natural language, when working with a model describing the ecosystem, it is necessary to transform them into formalised queries that can be given as input to the model. In this paper, the ecosystem behavior is described by a qualitative model, dened as a discrete- event system and represented by timed automata. The scenario templates are expressed using temporal logic completed with interest variables. The ecosystem is represented as a set of interacting subsystems and the global model obtained by composition on shared events. This technique is particularly suited to representing large-scale systems such as ecosystems. This work has been applied to a simplied marine ecosystem under fishing pressure. The model describes the tropho-dynamic interactions between fish trophic groups as well as interactions with the activities of a fishery. Scenario templates has been defined and tested in order to check several assumptions of the model.
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Communication dans un congrès
R.D. Braddock and Anderssen, R.S. and L.T.H. Newham. International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM'09), 2009, Cairns, Australia. pp.2129-2135, 2009
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Christine Largouët, Marie-Odile Cordier, Guy Fontenelle. Scenario templates to analyse qualitative ecosystem models. R.D. Braddock and Anderssen, R.S. and L.T.H. Newham. International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM'09), 2009, Cairns, Australia. pp.2129-2135, 2009. 〈inria-00461410〉

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