Inverse modeling of NOx emissions at regional scale over northern France: Preliminary investigation of the second-order sensitivity

Abstract : The purpose of this article is to perform the inverse modeling of emissions at regional scale for photochemical applications. The case study is the region of Lille in northern France for simulations in May 1998. The chemistry-transport model, Polair3D, has been validated with 1 year of model-to-observation comparisons over Lille. Polair3D has an adjoint mode, which enables inverse modeling with a variational approach. A sensitivity analysis has been performed so as to select the emission parameters to be modified in order to improve ozone forecasts. It has been shown that inverse modeling of the time distribution of nitrogen oxide emissions leads to satisfactory improvements even after the learning period. A key issue is the robustness of the inverted emissions with respect to uncertain parameters. A brute force second-order sensitivity analysis of the optimized emissions has been performed with respect to other parameters and has proven that the optimized time distribution of NOx emissions is robust.
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Denis Quélo, Vivien Mallet, Bruno Sportisse. Inverse modeling of NOx emissions at regional scale over northern France: Preliminary investigation of the second-order sensitivity. Journal of Geophysical Research, American Geophysical Union, 2005, 110 (D24310), ⟨10.1029/2005JD006151⟩. ⟨inria-00527206⟩

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