Towards the operational estimation of a radiological plume using data assimilation after a radiological accidental atmospheric release

Abstract : In the event of an accidental atmospheric release of radionuclides from a nuclear power plant, accurate real-time forecasting of the activity concentrations of radionuclides is required by the decision makers for the preparation of adequate countermeasures. The accuracy of the forecast plume is highly dependent on the source term estimation. On several academic test cases, including real data, inverse modelling and data assimilation techniques were proven to help in the assessment of the source term. In this paper, a semi-automatic method is proposed for the sequential reconstruction of the plume, by implementing a sequential data assimilation algorithm based on inverse modelling, with a care to develop realistic methods for operational risk agencies. The performance of the assimilation scheme has been assessed through the intercomparison between French and Finnish frameworks. Two dispersion models have been used: Polair3D and Silam developed in two different research centres. Different release locations, as well as different meteorological situations are tested. The existing and newly planned surveillance networks are used and realistically large multiplicative observational errors are assumed. The inverse modelling scheme accounts for strong error bias encountered with such errors. The efficiency of the data assimilation system is tested via statistical indicators. For France and Finland, the average performance of the data assimilation system is strong. However there are outlying situations where the inversion fails because of a too poor observability. In addition, in the case where the power plant responsible for the accidental release is not known, robust statistical tools are developed and tested to discriminate candidate release sites.
Type de document :
Article dans une revue
Atmospheric environment, Elsevier, 2011, 45 (17), pp.2944-2955. 〈10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.12.025〉
Liste complète des métadonnées

Littérature citée [29 références]  Voir  Masquer  Télécharger

https://hal.inria.fr/inria-00632440
Contributeur : Nathalie Gaudechoux <>
Soumis le : mercredi 27 novembre 2013 - 13:03:53
Dernière modification le : vendredi 25 mai 2018 - 12:02:03
Document(s) archivé(s) le : vendredi 28 février 2014 - 04:35:56

Fichier

Preprint_Winiarek_et_al_2011.p...
Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)

Identifiants

Collections

Citation

Victor Winiarek, J. Vira, Marc Bocquet, Mikhail Sofiev, Olivier Saunier. Towards the operational estimation of a radiological plume using data assimilation after a radiological accidental atmospheric release. Atmospheric environment, Elsevier, 2011, 45 (17), pp.2944-2955. 〈10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.12.025〉. 〈inria-00632440〉

Partager

Métriques

Consultations de la notice

320

Téléchargements de fichiers

185