Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
New interface
Journal articles

Towards the operational estimation of a radiological plume using data assimilation after a radiological accidental atmospheric release

Abstract : In the event of an accidental atmospheric release of radionuclides from a nuclear power plant, accurate real-time forecasting of the activity concentrations of radionuclides is required by the decision makers for the preparation of adequate countermeasures. The accuracy of the forecast plume is highly dependent on the source term estimation. On several academic test cases, including real data, inverse modelling and data assimilation techniques were proven to help in the assessment of the source term. In this paper, a semi-automatic method is proposed for the sequential reconstruction of the plume, by implementing a sequential data assimilation algorithm based on inverse modelling, with a care to develop realistic methods for operational risk agencies. The performance of the assimilation scheme has been assessed through the intercomparison between French and Finnish frameworks. Two dispersion models have been used: Polair3D and Silam developed in two different research centres. Different release locations, as well as different meteorological situations are tested. The existing and newly planned surveillance networks are used and realistically large multiplicative observational errors are assumed. The inverse modelling scheme accounts for strong error bias encountered with such errors. The efficiency of the data assimilation system is tested via statistical indicators. For France and Finland, the average performance of the data assimilation system is strong. However there are outlying situations where the inversion fails because of a too poor observability. In addition, in the case where the power plant responsible for the accidental release is not known, robust statistical tools are developed and tested to discriminate candidate release sites.
Document type :
Journal articles
Complete list of metadata

Cited literature [29 references]  Display  Hide  Download
Contributor : Nathalie Gaudechoux Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Wednesday, November 27, 2013 - 1:03:53 PM
Last modification on : Tuesday, November 15, 2022 - 10:58:34 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Friday, February 28, 2014 - 4:35:56 AM


Files produced by the author(s)




Victor Winiarek, J. Vira, Marc Bocquet, Mikhail Sofiev, Olivier Saunier. Towards the operational estimation of a radiological plume using data assimilation after a radiological accidental atmospheric release. Atmospheric Environment, 2011, 45 (17), pp.2944-2955. ⟨10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.12.025⟩. ⟨inria-00632440⟩



Record views


Files downloads