The Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Suitable Distribution of Major Crops in Zambia and the Countermeasures

Abstract : Climate change, as an inevitable process, will aggravate food shortage of the already vulnerable agriculture systems in Zambia. Rain-fed agriculture supports the livelihood of majority of smallholders in Zambia. To effectively adapt to foreseeable climate change, and to decrease risk of the food crisis, we analyzed potential suitable distribution of major crops (white maize (Zea mays), cassava (Manihot esculenta) and sorghum (Sorghum bicolor)) in Zambia under current and future (2080s) climates using the MCE-GIS (multi-criteria evaluation -geographical information system) Planting Ecological Adaptability model. The simulation results indicate that climate change will change the potential suitable area for maize from 66.8% to 48.6%; and that of cassava from 65% to 84%. The suitable regions of sorghum move northward although the total areas will not change. We conclude that future climate change will have different effects on various crops. Our modeling results can be used to make appropriate management decisions and to provide farmers with alternative options for their farming system in responding to climate change.