Simulation temporelle et spatiale des changements d'occupation du sol par modélisation stochastique

Abstract : The landscape patterns are the results of the human activity that adapts the land cover and its use (LUC) to constraints or economic opportunities encountered by various actors. The temporal and spatial arrangement of LUC has a strong influence on environmental risks. Its knowledge allows to develop prospective simulation models to assess the impact of different scenarios on the evolution of the land use and land cover change (LUCC). This paper presents a methodology based on stochastic models to identify, locate and simulate the temporal LUCC of regions differentiated by their successions by means of " neutral " models. The concept of a " neutral " model has been introduced in ecology for describing the characteristics of coexisting populations in a territory. Every individual-whatever its species it belongs to in the ecosystem-undergoes the same constraints without taking precedence over another. The result is a balance that is regulated by processes whose dynamics do not vary. In the framework of spatially explicit models coupled to a geographical information system according to the categorization defined by [AGG + 00], the territory is described as an assembly of homogeneous discontinuous units-called patches-represented by a regular grid of pixels. We propose a territorial simulation method that takes into account the dynamics of temporal and spatial patterns of previous successions observed in different sub-regions. We carry out a classification of the territory in homogeneous patches with respect to their LUC. The simulation of the LUC succession is then made on these patches at the pixel level taking into account the rotations / successions that were practiced the previous two years. The differences between simulated and observed data make it possible to detect breaks in the process of developing the territory according to the constraints or opportunities for farmers. Differences are measured using the pixel recognition rate on a rasterized representation of the territory. We assess our method on data that come from surveys in the Vittel-Contrex´eville territory (East of France) which is subject to water quality issues.
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Jean-François Mari, Arnaud Gobillot, Marc Benoît. Simulation temporelle et spatiale des changements d'occupation du sol par modélisation stochastique. Revue Internationale de Géomatique, Lavoisier, 2018, Revue Internationale de Géomatique, 28 (2), pp.219 - 242. ⟨hal-01662140⟩

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