Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
New interface
Journal articles

Short-term air temperature forecasting using Nonparametric Functional Data Analysis and SARMA models

Sophie Dabo-Niang 1, 2 Stelian Curceac 3 Camille Ternynck 4 Taha B.M.J. Ouarda 5 Fateh Chebana 6 
1 MODAL - MOdel for Data Analysis and Learning
LPP - Laboratoire Paul Painlevé - UMR 8524, Université de Lille, Sciences et Technologies, Inria Lille - Nord Europe, METRICS - Evaluation des technologies de santé et des pratiques médicales - ULR 2694, Polytech Lille - École polytechnique universitaire de Lille
Abstract : Air temperature is a significant meteorological variable that affects social activities and economic sectors. In this paper, a non-parametric and a parametric approach are used to forecast hourly air temperature up to 24 h in advance. The former is a regression model in the Functional Data Analysis framework. The nonlinear regression operator is estimated using a kernel function. The smoothing parameter is obtained by a cross-validation procedure and used for the selection of the optimal number of closest curves. The other method applied is a Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (SARMA) model, the order of which is determined by the Bayesian Information Criterion. The obtained forecasts are combined using weights calculated based on the forecast errors. The results show that SARMA has a better performance for the first 6 forecasted hours, after which the Non-Parametric Functional Data Analysis (NPFDA) model provides superior results. Forecast pooling improves the accuracy of the forecasts.
Document type :
Journal articles
Complete list of metadata

https://hal.inria.fr/hal-02334991
Contributor : Sophie Dabo-Niang Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Monday, October 28, 2019 - 8:36:15 AM
Last modification on : Tuesday, December 6, 2022 - 12:42:13 PM

Identifiers

Citation

Sophie Dabo-Niang, Stelian Curceac, Camille Ternynck, Taha B.M.J. Ouarda, Fateh Chebana. Short-term air temperature forecasting using Nonparametric Functional Data Analysis and SARMA models. Environmental Modelling and Software, 2019, 111, pp.394-408. ⟨10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.09.017⟩. ⟨hal-02334991⟩

Share

Metrics

Record views

124