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Impact of January 2021 curfew measures on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 circulation in France

Abstract : Following the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant, social distancing was strengthened in France in January 2021. Using a two-strain mathematical model calibrated on genomic surveillance, we estimated that curfew measures allowed hospitalisations to plateau by decreasing transmission of the historical strains while B.1.1.7 continued to grow. School holidays appear to have further slowed down progression in February. Without progressively strengthened social distancing, a rapid surge of hospitalisations is expected, despite the foreseen increase in vaccination rhythm.
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https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03201061
Contributor : Gestionnaire Hal-Su <>
Submitted on : Saturday, April 17, 2021 - 3:20:37 PM
Last modification on : Monday, April 19, 2021 - 11:55:58 AM

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Laura Di Domenico, Chiara Sabbatini, Giulia Pullano, Daniel Lévy-Bruhl, Vittoria Colizza. Impact of January 2021 curfew measures on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 circulation in France. Eurosurveillance, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 2021, 26 (15), ⟨10.2807/1560-7917.es.2021.26.15.2100272⟩. ⟨hal-03201061⟩

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