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YouTube Recommendations Do Predict Polls: A note on the 2022 French presidential election

Erwan Le Merrer 1 Gilles Trédan 2 Ali yesilkanat 1 
1 WIDE - the World Is Distributed Exploring the tension between scale and coordination
Inria Rennes – Bretagne Atlantique , IRISA-D1 - SYSTÈMES LARGE ÉCHELLE
2 LAAS-TSF - Équipe Tolérance aux fautes et Sûreté de Fonctionnement informatique
LAAS - Laboratoire d'analyse et d'architecture des systèmes
Abstract : We ask if YouTube political recommendations follow the polls performed during the 2022 presidential campaign in France. We find that these recommendations to users, particularly the exposure time in recommended videos, allow for a good prediction of polls, with a daily Mean Absolute Error of solely 3.24% over all candidates. Compared to final election results, polls were 1.11% accurate, whereas our approach was 1.93% accurate.
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https://hal.inria.fr/hal-03655608
Contributor : Erwan Le Merrer Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Friday, April 29, 2022 - 5:05:49 PM
Last modification on : Wednesday, June 1, 2022 - 3:54:26 AM

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  • HAL Id : hal-03655608, version 1

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Erwan Le Merrer, Gilles Trédan, Ali yesilkanat. YouTube Recommendations Do Predict Polls: A note on the 2022 French presidential election. [Research Report] Rapport LAAS n° 22136, Inria. 2022. ⟨hal-03655608⟩

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