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Understanding and monitoring the evolution of the Covid-19 epidemic from medical emergency calls: the example of the Paris area
Understanding and monitoring the evolution of the Covid-19 epidemic from medical emergency calls: the example of the Paris area
Abstract : We portray the evolution of the Covid-19 epidemic during the crisis of
March-April 2020 in the Paris area, by analyzing the medical emergency
calls received by the EMS of the four central departments of this area
(Centre 15 of SAMU 75, 92, 93 and 94). Our study reveals strong
dissimilarities between these departments. We show that the logarithm
of each epidemic observable can be approximated by a piecewise linear
function of time. This allows us to distinguish the different phases
of the epidemic, and to identify the delay between sanitary measures
and their influence on the load of EMS. This also leads to an
algorithm, allowing one to detect epidemic resurgences. We rely on a
transport PDE epidemiological model, and we use methods from
Perron-Frobenius theory and tropical geometry.
Cited literature [37 references]
https://hal.inria.fr/hal-02648075
Contributor : Stephane Gaubert Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Friday, June 12, 2020 - 7:18:07 AM
Last modification on : Friday, September 30, 2022 - 11:34:15 AM
Contributor : Stephane Gaubert Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Friday, June 12, 2020 - 7:18:07 AM
Last modification on : Friday, September 30, 2022 - 11:34:15 AM
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arxivv2.pdf
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