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Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2016

Kernel estimation of extreme regression risk measures

Résumé

The Regression Conditional Tail Moment (RCTM) is the risk measure defined as the moment of order b ≥ 0 of a loss distribution above the upper α-quantile where α ∈ (0, 1) and when a covariate information is available. The purpose of this work is first to establish the asymptotic properties of the RCTM in case of extreme losses, i.e when α → 0 is no longer fixed, under general extreme-value conditions on their distribution tail. In particular, no assumption is made on the sign of the associated extreme-value index. Second, the asymptotic normality of a kernel estimator of the RCTM is established, which allows to derive similar results for estimators of related risk measures such as the Regression Conditional Tail Expec-tation/Variance/Skewness. When the distribution tail is upper bounded, an application to frontier estimation is also proposed. The results are illustrated both on simulated data and on a real dataset in the field of nuclear reactors reliability.
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Dates et versions

hal-01393519 , version 1 (07-11-2016)
hal-01393519 , version 2 (15-03-2017)
hal-01393519 , version 3 (14-11-2017)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-01393519 , version 1

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Jonathan El Methni, Laurent Gardes, Stéphane Girard. Kernel estimation of extreme regression risk measures. 2016. ⟨hal-01393519v1⟩
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